恐怖指数が先週あたりから20を超えててきた。これはテクニカル的には本年4月以降に起こったギリシャ危機の状況に大変似ているという。ひとつの目安は30越えだろう。ここを超えてくれると信用不安を気にする段階に入ってくる。
VIX TRIGGERS MOMENTUM SIGNAL SIMILAR TO APRIL... Chart 8 shows the CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) as the Percent Price Oscillator (10,50). Applying this indicator to the VIX detrends the price series, which makes it easier to spot extremes. The red line marks a bullish extreme around -10, while the green line marks a bearish extreme above +5. A move below -10 indicates that VIX is trading at a bullish extreme. In other words, sentiment is deemed excessively bullish. This is now, however, a sell signal. The VIX must first turn up from excessively bullish levels and break back above -10. The red dotted lines show bearish signals in January, April, August and October. The January and August signals marked stock market corrections that did not last long. The first April signal was early, but notice how the PPO formed a small divergence and moved above its signal line a second time. This second signal corresponded with a significant decline. The current setup in the VIX PPO looks similar to April. After moving below -10 in October, a bullish divergence formed and the PPO moved back above its signal line this week. Even though we did not see a double top below -10, VIX momentum is rising as long as the PPO holds above its signal line and this is negative for stocks.
0 件のコメント:
コメントを投稿